With NGAD uncertain, will America’s next air superiority fighter be the F-35?

With massive cost overruns compounding on big-ticket programs, it’s increasingly becoming clear that the Air Force can’t afford to fund everything it arguably needs to maintain air dominance in the decades ahead. So, after more than a decade of development, the Air Force has placed its Next Generation Air Dominance, or NGAD, fighter on hold pending a complete re-evaluation of the program and its costs, amid the branch’s uncertain economic future.  

Previous estimates cited the cost per NGAD fighter at roughly $300 million, yet, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall now calls for a price tag between $80 and $100 million per jet, which is around the current unit-price of the F-35.

However, fielding the world’s first sixth-generation fighter at that price point isn’t realistically feasible, as it would be nearly impossible to field many new technologies in this new fighter since new equipment is expensive to design, develop, and procure. In fact, this price is barely realistic for an advanced 4th generation fighter – jets like the F-15EX, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, and SAAB Gripen E all ring in at above Kendall’s target price.

Kendall’s call for an air superiority fighter at that price point could suggest that the most affordable answer is actually… the F-35 itself. 

The F-35 is not widely recognized as an inexpensive aircraft, but in terms of per-unit price tags, it’s a downright bargain. Today, countries can purchase F-35s on the export market for less than they can purchase most advanced 4th generation jets like the F-15EX and Eurofighter Typhoon, and for roughly the same as more budget-minded fighters like the Gripen-E. This is possible because of production volume. Lockheed Martin pumps out roughly 150 F-35s per year with more than 1,000 already delivered, as compared to Boeing’s F-15EX at between 24 and 48 per year, the Eurofighter at an average of around 20, and the Gripen E at roughly 24. 

Enter the air superiority F-35

The F-35 has consistently proven its air combat prowess in large-scale exercises against both American and allied fighters. It’s been reported that the F-35 regularly exceeds an astonishing 20:1 kill ratio against other fighters in the Air Force’s massive Red Flag exercises – a figure eclipsed only by the F-22 Raptor. As Col. Joshua Wood, 388th Operations Group commander recounted in 2019, the F-35 is so effective at air combat that he watched a brand new pilot with only “seven or eight flights out of training” take out three 4th generation fighters with highly experienced pilots within an hour during one of these exercises. 

The F-35 may be an attack-focused fighter, but when it comes to taking out enemy jets at beyond visual range, it’s arguably the best in the world besides the F-22 Raptor. But in the next few years, that ranking may change.

Today’s F-35 carries several systems that can be seen as upgraded iterations of systems first brought to bear by the F-22 Raptor. Its AN/APG-81 Active Electronically Scanned Array Radar, widely seen as the most powerful and robust in the world, is the direct successor to the F-22’s AN/APG-77, which was also the most powerful radar ever affixed to a fighter when it entered service 10 years earlier. The F-35’s Pratt & Whitney F135 turbofan is the most powerful engine ever bolted into a fighter’s fuselage, and it too emerged as an iterative improvement over the groundbreaking F119 engines found in the F-22. 

The F-35’s design prioritizes long-range engagements. The jet’s ability to collect and fuse sensor data collected by a wide array of external and internal sensors provides its pilots with more battlefield awareness than has ever been possible in a fighter, giving the F-35 that coveted first-kill opportunity. 

Further, the F-35 is not only still in production, it’s also seeing massive changes to onboard systems and capabilities, and the forthcoming Block 4 F-35 may even give the Raptor a run for its air superiority money. 

Related: How does China’s new J-35 stealth fighter compare to America’s F-35?

A 6th-generation F-35

As a part of the Block 4 upgrade, the F-35 will receive yet another massive radar upgrade in the form of the new AN/APG-85, which some official sources claim will offer nearly double the detection and targeting range and fidelity. That radar will be complemented by a new infrared distributed aperture system in conjunction with an upgraded electro-optical targeting system, allowing F-35 pilots to target and engage enemy aircraft via their heat signature alone in any direction. This will then feed into the newest iterations of the AIM-9X missile that can be carried internally and fed infrared targeting data by the aircraft’s sensors before launch. 

Inside its weapons bay, new racks will allow the Block 4 F-35 to increase its payload of larger air-to-air missiles like the AMRAAM, or the forthcoming ong-range AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile, from four to six, the same number as the F-22. 

Lastly, the NGAD fighter has been conceived to fly alongside a formation of AI-enabled drone wingmen called Collaborative Combat Aircraft. The Block 4 will allow the F-35 to do the same, thanks to a big boost in onboard computing power brought about by the ongoing Tech Refresh 3 and subsequent software improvements to come as part of Block 4. 

In other words, the Block 4 F-35 will fly with drone wingmen; and have a more powerful onboard radar, a broader infrared search and track targeting capability, and offer better situational awareness than any fighter in the world. 

The only hard requirement the Air Force has for its new NGAD fighter that the Block 4 F-35 won’t meet is the need for greater range in order to operate effectively over the vast expanse of the Pacific. However, an upgrade program meant for the F-22 could help to offset that challenge as well. 

Related: Marines deploy new system to take out ships in the Pacific

The Low Drag Tank and Pylon (LDTP) program is currently fielding stealth drop tanks to be carried by the F-22 Raptor, allowing it to fly with 8,000 pounds of additional fuel without compromising its stealth profile to the same extent as the current non-stealth tanks. Lockheed Martin has already said these tanks could feasibly make their way to the F-35. 

The F-35A carries 18,498 pounds of fuel internally and has a publicly disclosed combat radius of some 679 miles. That shakes out to burning around 13.62 pounds of fuel per mile. So, an added 8,000 pounds of fuel provided by two stealth drop tanks could increase the F-35A’s range by nearly 590 miles, or increase its combat radius to greater than 970 miles. 

Nevertheless, using the F-35 for the air superiority mission isn’t an optimal solution. In fact, the optimal solution would be to field the NGAD fighter as previously envisioned to provide yet another generational gap over adversary capabilities. But the U.S. military rarely gets to trade in optimal solutions. Instead, the job is almost always to make mission with the resources and assets you have available to you. 

In a world full of budget overruns and political compromise, the F-35 may not be the air superiority fighter we deserve… but it might just be the one that we need. 

Feature Image: An F-35B Lightning II aircraft assigned to Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 262 (Reinforced) lands aboard amphibious assault carrier USS Tripoli (LHA 7), Aug. 30, 2022. (U.S. Navy photo by Chief Petty Officer Peter Burghart)

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