How large are the nuclear arsenals of Russia and China compared to those of the US and its allies?

As relations between the United States and China and Russia continue to deteriorate, nuclear weapons are once again relevant.

“We have not seen nuclear weapons playing such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War,” Wilfred Wan, director of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI’s) Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, said in a press release. “It is hard to believe that barely two years have passed since the leaders of the five largest nuclear-armed states jointly reaffirmed that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”

The large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has unearthed the specter of nuclear conflict and sent planners back to the nuclear-war drawing board.

Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a major shift in his country’s nuclear doctrine. Now, Russia will consider the direct support of a nuclear power to a third country for attacks against Russian territory to amount to nuclear provocation. The change in doctrine was in response to discussions in the U.S. and NATO to give the Ukrainian military the green light to use powerful Western-provided munitions against military targets within Russia.

SIPRI provides some very good information on the state of nuclear weapon affairs in its 2024 nuclear Yearbook. And when it comes to Russia and China, the news isn’t good.

The Russian nuclear arsenal

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, with a total inventory of 5,580 warheads. Out of those, 1,710 are deployed, 2,670 are stored, and 1,200 are retired. So, the Russian military has 4,380 nuclear warheads for operational use, with 1,710 ready to go to war.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has likely moved nuclear warheads into Belarus. (This move was mostly made to increase the pressure on Ukraine and NATO rather than provide any serious advantage in the event of a nuclear conflict.)

“While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,” SIRPI Director Dan Smith said in a press release. “This trend seems likely to continue and probably accelerate in the coming years and is extremely concerning,” he added.

But it isn’t just Russia. China has been making increasingly bigger investments in its nuclear arsenal, thus posing another threat to the United States.

Related: Russia can’t conduct maneuver warfare – and this is costing it a lot

China’s nuclear arsenal is growing rapidly

Beijing has been investing heavily in the expansion and modernization of its military forces. And as part of this investment, it’s spending big on nuclear weapons.

China has a total inventory of approximately 500 warheads, 24 of which are deployed and 476 stored. Although relatively small compared to that of Russia and the U.S., China’s nuclear arsenal is growing rapidly.

“China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,” Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), has stated. “But in nearly all of the nuclear-armed states there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces.”

According to SIRPI’s assessment, Beijing from January 2023 to January 2024, Beijing’s nuclear warhead arsenal jumped from 410 to 500 warheads.

Equally concerning is the fact that, for the first time, it is assessed that China likely has some nuclear warheads on high operational alert. That means that warheads are deployed with ballistic missile units or strategic bombers and ready to be used if necessary. Beijing’s desire to have a nuclear strike capability ready highlights the increased stakes over Taiwan and in the South China Sea.

The US nuclear arsenal

The U.S. has a total of 5,044 nuclear warheads at its disposal. Although this is fewer than Russia’s 5,580, the U.S. has the most active warheads with 1,770 (to Russia’s 1,710 and China’s 24). These warheads are ready for war and are deployed with the military’s nuclear triad (strategic bombers, Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, and ballistic-missile submarines).

Further, the U.S. has 1,938 stored warheads in reserve (to Russia’s 2,670 and China’s 476).

The figures show that although the U.S. doesn’t have the most nuclear warheads in the world, it is the most prepared for a nuclear conflict with enough deployed warheads to fight more than one adversary.

Related: US Navy nuclear ballistic missile submarine surfaces off Norway in unusual flex as ‘Doomsday’ plane flies overhead

With a little help from my friends

One of the largest advantages the U.S. has over its near-peer adversaries is a robust system of alliances and partnerships. Whereas the alignment of Russia and China is one of convenience and its actual depth is questionable, the U.S. enjoys close relations with multiple countries, and it can count on them in the event of a conflict.

The United Kingdom is the closest ally of the U.S. and it is also one of the first nuclear powers. Today, the British military has a total of 225 nuclear warheads, 120 of which are deployed and 105 stored in reserve. However, the U.K. doesn’t have a nuclear triad that ensures mutually assured destruction in the event of a nuclear conflict. Nevertheless, the British military has a powerful maritime nuclear capability with its ballistic-missile submarines and the Trident II D5 ballistic nuclear missiles.

“Although the UK is not thought to have increased its nuclear weapon arsenal in 2023, its warhead stockpile is expected to grow in the future as a result of the British government’s announcement in 2021 that it was raising its limit from 225 to 260 warheads. The government also said it would no longer publicly disclose its quantities of nuclear weapons, deployed warheads or deployed missiles,” SIRPI states in its 2024 Yearbook report.

France is another important nuclear power and the oldest U.S. ally, despite ups and downs in the relationship. The French military has a total of 290 nuclear warheads with 280 of them deployed and 10 stored in reserve.

Similarly to Great Britain, France doesn’t have a nuclear triad. Yet, it has a potent maritime and air nuclear arm. The French Navy has 10 ballistic missile submarines capable of carrying the M4 IRBM ballistic missile with nuclear warheads, and the French Air Force has several different types of nuclear bombs and missiles.

“In 2023 France continued its programmes to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile, as well as to refurbish and upgrade existing systems,” SIRPI stated about the nuclear capabilities of the French armed forces.

No one wants a nuclear war, but a major part of preventing it is having a potent nuclear weapons arsenal to deter adversaries.

Feature Image: Peacekeeper, Minuteman I, and Minuteman III Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles on display near F.E. Warren Air Force Base, WY, 2011. (U.S. Air Force photo by R.J. Oriez)

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