Could France undertake the role of Europe’s nuclear protector? Potentially  

The increasing political distance between the United States and its European partners has caused alarm across the Europe. In response, French President Emmanuel Macron recently announced a willingness to change his country’s nuclear posture as a safeguard of Europe’s sovereignty. France, after all, designs, produces, and maintains its own nuclear arsenal.  

Although ambitious, Macron’s idea is certainly feasible. France has a defensive, or second-strike, nuclear policy – meaning it will only use its nuclear weapons to strike back after being attacked – and a capable nuclear arsenal.  

France has a potent and sizeable nuclear arsenal. Indeed, Paris boasts the fourth-largest nuclear arsenal in the world behind Russia, the United States, and China. Specifically, the French military has a total of 290 nuclear warheads compared to Russia’s 5,580, America’s 5,044, and China’s 500.  

Out of these 290 nuclear warheads, 280 are deployed and 10 stored in reserve. In this context, the term “deployed” is used to refer to munitions that are either placed on missiles or located in operational bases. Deployed munitions include warheads ready to launch at a moment’s notice and warheads that are stored for follow-on use if necessary.  

It is also important to note that the French nuclear arsenal is the fourth-largest in the world in warhead numbers and not yield. The United Kingdom, for example, which has fewer nuclear warheads (225), could have more destructive capability. Accurately calculating the actual yield of nuclear munitions is nearly impossible as some warheads have variable yields (they can be adjusted according to the operational setting) and countries are also quite protective of their nuclear secrets.  

France is continuing to improve its nuclear arsenal.

“In 2023 France continued its programmes to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile, as well as to refurbish and upgrade existing systems,” SIRPI stated in its latest global nuclear weapons report about the nuclear capabilities of the French military.

Related: US announces development of powerful new nuclear bomb

Unlike the U.S. and Russia, France does not have a nuclear triad capability. Paris’ nuclear deterrent comprises air and maritime capabilities but not intercontinental ballistic missiles that can be fired from the ground. Until 1996, the French military had an arsenal of medium-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The collapse of the Soviet Union, however, made the capability redundant. Today, although the lack of a land-based nuclear deterrent might be a strategic shortcoming, the air and maritime nuclear capabilities of the French military are considerable. However, France could potentially achieve a nuclear land capability.

The French Air Force and French Navy have a combined force of 50 Dassault Rafale fighter jets that are qualified to carry a total of 40 thermonuclear warheads; 40 of those aircraft are land-based, while the rest can operate from the country’s Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier. These aircraft can carry the ASMPA medium-range, air-launched cruise missile with a nuclear warhead. The ASMPA has a range of approximately 375 miles.  

As far as maritime nuclear capabilities, the French Navy has 10 ballistic missile submarines that can carry the M51 IRBM submarine-launched ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead. There are two versions of the ballistic missile, the M51.1 and M51.2, he former has a range of more than 3,700 miles, while the latter can reach targets more than 5,600 miles away. Each French submarine can carry up to 16 ballistic missiles, each of which can carry multiple warheads.  

The French Navy has maintained a continuous at-sea presence for almost 30 years, meaning that a French submarine carrying nuclear munitions is always lurking in the depths to respond to a potential attack.  

Although France might lack the numbers of Russia and the U.S., it has a very respectable nuclear weapons capability that could help protect Europe.

Feature Image: French air force ground crewmen provide a boarding ladder for a Rafale fighter aircrew upon upon their arrival at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev., on August 7, 2008. (U.S. Air Force photo by Chief Master Sgt. Gary Emery)

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