Apophis: Are we prepared to defeat Earth’s greatest planetary threat?

In 2018, the B612 Foundation, a collection of astrophysicists, planetary scientists, NASA astronauts, and others, stated in the starkest terms that “it is 100% certain we’ll get hit [by a devastating asteroid], but we’re not 100% certain when.”

While statistically it does seem certain that Earth will again sustain some kind of catastrophic strike from an asteroid at some point in the future, that collision could theoretically come 10,000 or more years from now (a mere flicker in cosmic-scale time). In the near term, relatively speaking, the near-Earth object (NEO) tha poses the greatest threat to the continued existence of maybe millions of humans is the asteroid “99942 Apophis.” At 1,480 feet by 560 feet in size, if you stood Apophis up on-end in New York City or Paris, the space rock would be larger than both the Eiffel Tower and the Empire State Building.

When Apophis was first discovered in 2004, it was assessed to have a 2.7% chance of hitting us on April 13, 2029. That probability, plus its size, made it the most hazardous NEO ever recorded (a 4 out of 10) on the Torino impact hazard scale (which combines probability of impact with potential kinetic energy released). The asteroid has been called a “city killer” given its size. Other estimates have said an Apophis impact would be equivalent to the entire global nuclear arsenal detonating at once. Yikes.

Thankfully, later and more precise orbital measurements in 2013 brought the probability of Apophis hitting Earth in 2029 to essentially zero. The same became true for the year 2051, when Apophis is again scheduled to pass close to our planet. However, a small chance remained (two in one million) of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2068… when, yes, it will pass closely once again. In March 2021, scientists assessed the chances of Apophis hitting Earth anytime in the next 100 years as again near zero. However, given its orbit and size, the asteroid could remain a hazard to Earth for thousands of years. The potential that some as-yet unknown cosmic force might act on Apophis also exists such that once again it could present an increased danger to Earth in the nearish-term.

While science says impact with Apophis is a remote danger, we should still collectively consider the threat of this city killer, and ask ourselves, “Can we prevent it?” The answer is that we’re working on it.

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Numerous hypothetical methods to stave off a NEO collision with Earth essentially boil down to either diverting/deflecting the asteroid from its orbit, or fragmenting it into smaller and thus more harmless pieces that would impact the Earth. Both state-run and non-governmental organizations across the world – especially in Europe, the United States, and China – have researched the problem and even launched beta tests in the form of spacecraft to act as impactors against an asteroid.

Techniques include “gravity tractors” to pull the NEO into a new orbit; mass drivers to push it into a new orbit by stripping mass from it; conventional rockets meant to “attach” to the NEO and use thrust to push it away; and impacting the asteroid with kinetic force, focused solar energy, ion beams, or nuclear explosions. Using a nuclear device or collection of multiple devices, from a standoff distance from the NEO, appears to be the best bet for a short-notice and cost-effective solution, as any other type of mission could take anywhere from 5-10 years to plan and carry out. Earth might not get the luxury of that much time to prepare, after all.

Impacting the asteroid with enough kinetic force to knock it off an Earth-bound trajectory or break it into many smaller pieces is sort of like throwing a rock at another rock in midair to accomplish the same goal. Whether that be done with a nuclear device, or an actual spacecraft with enough mass to sufficiently alter the NEO’s orbit, such a course of action will remain for our world leaders and scientists to decide and then execute. Statistically, it is a decision some future generation will undoubtedly face.

Feature Image: Artist’s impression of an asteroid that orbits closer to the Sun than Earth’s orbit, October 2022. (Noirlab)

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